Weekly Economic Update
| Current Economic Conditions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) and the weighted mean of coordinates (WMoC) provide insights into the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that indicate emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Friday, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The BaR shows why the economy has not fallen into a recession even though a significant number of indicators are at recession levels. Corporate profits have remained historically high, while unemployment claims and financial stress (STLFSI) have stayed low. As a result, all three indicators plot well above the baseline. As long as earnings stay strong and financial stress stays low, a full-blown national recession is unlikely. Click on arrows to see how the economy has progressed since 2009. BaR is currently shown on 60%/60% scale. |
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*Weekly unemployment claims are inverted on the BaR. A positive % change indicates a decrease in claims. |
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| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
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Updated 2/6. To see previous tables go here. Next update 2/13. |
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2-Year/10-Year Treasury Rates |
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2-year/10-year Treasury rates provide useful insights into near-term economic conditions. Learn more here. Current trend signals improving economic outlook. |
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Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with data reported through 2nd quarter 2025. Updated 8/31/25. (See other business cycles) |
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"The problems with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two." - Dashiell Hammett, The Thin Man |
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