Home

Weekly Economic Update

Current Economic Conditions

The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid^© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) and the weighted mean of coordinates (WMoC) provide insights into the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that indicate emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Friday, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data.

Click on arrows to see how the economy has progressed since 2009. BaR is currently shown on 60%/60% scale.

Refinements and Adjustments

October 31 update: For indicators updated this week, the changes in their percent-from-baseline positions over the past three months are shown here. (Scroll down to see Percent from Baseline table.)
Indicator	October 31, 2025 % from Baseline	End of July 2025 % from Baseline	+ or -
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (not updated)	10.1% (Sept.)	4.6%	+ 5.5
*Weekly unemployment claims (not updated)**	37.7% (Sept.)	38.1%	- 0.4
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (not updated)	30.4% (Sept.)	34.1%	- 3.7
MoC	0.3%	0.0%	+ 0.3
WMoC	7.6%	8.3%	- 0.4

*Weekly unemployment claims are inverted on the BaR. A positive % change indicates a decrease in claims.

Economic Indicators
Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends

Republished 10/31. To see previous tables go here. Next update 11/7.

Sep 5 2025

Current Business Cycle

Rolling 3-Month Average with data reported through 2nd quarter 2025. Updated 8/31/25.

(See other business cycles)

2025 30 Month 1Q

To see refinements and adjustments made to the BaR Analysis Grid, go here.

"The problems with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two." - Dashiell Hammett, The Thin Man

Indicator

October 31, 2025

% from Baseline

End of July 2025

% from Baseline

+ or -