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Quick, unbiased view of the economy...

"Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."        — Sherlock Holmes, A Scandal in Bohemia
Mapping the Road to Recession
You can read about the methodology and assumptions used to create the Baseline and Rates of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid©, in this Seeking Alpha article.

2007 Recession

One Month Prior to 2007 Recession
Prior to the 2007 recession, most economic indicators had negative rates of change and several were below the baseline (during a recession, most if not all, economic indicators will go below the baseline). Importantly, the mean of coordinates had a negative rate of change and was approaching the baseline, signaling how poorly the economy was performing at this time. 
2007 1 Month

Three Months Prior to 2007 Recession

2007 3 Months Prior 2007

Six Months Prior to the 2007 Recession

2007 6 Months Prior 2007

Nine Months Prior to 2007 Recession

2007 9 Months Prior 2007

Twelve Months Prior to 2007 Recession

2007 12 Months Prior 2007

Fifteen Months Prior to 2007 Recession

2007 15 Months Prior 2007

Twenty-Four Months Prior to 2007 Recession
2007 24 Months Prior 2007

2001 Recession

One Month Prior to 2001 Recession
2001 1 Month

Three Months Prior to 2001 Recession
2001 3 Months

Six Months Prior to 2001 Recession
2001 6 Months

Nine Months Prior to 2001 Recession
2001 9 Months

Twelve Months Prior to 2001 Recession
2001 12 Months

Eighteen Months Prior to 2001 Recession
2001 18 Months

Data Legend

Legend 10 10

 

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