Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
| Copyright © 2017 - 2022 econpi.com All Rights Reserved |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| 2/3 update: Of the economic indicators updated this week, five had a positive rate of change, moving the MoC slightly into the expansion quadrant. Whether or not a recession occurs remains to be seen; however, it is not uncommon for there to be brief positive mini-cycles prior to a recession. On the other hand, this may indicate that the Fed is achieving the soft landing it hoped for. On the 3-Month Rolling Average chart near the bottom of this page, the MoC rolling 3-month average for the fourth quarter of 2022 remained in the decline quadrant. Recession watch: On the current road to recession, economic conditions are unique. Generally, when recessions start, corporate profits and weekly unemployment claims are near or below the baseline (see here). However, both corporate profits and weekly unemployment claims are relatively strong and remain well above the baseline. Although consumers have been facing economic stress for some time, as indicated by consumer sentiment, that stress has not fully hit corporations. Keep an eye on corporate profits and weekly unemployment claims. The extent to which they fall will likely indicate whether soft economic conditions drag on or a hard recession hits. |
|
| Economic Data Updates: 1/30 to 2/3: Nonfarm jobs, nonfarm new hires, Credit Managers' Index, yield curve spread, weekly unemployment claims, SFLFSI, and temporary employment; 1/23 to 1/27: CFNAI, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 1/16 to 1/20: Retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, existing home sales, and private building permits; 1/9 to 1/13: NFIB small business optimism, OECD business confidence, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. |
| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here.. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 1/27. To see previous tables go here. Next update 2/3. |
 |
| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through December 2022; Updated 1/27/22 (See other business cycles) |
 |
 |
| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
