econ p.i.

Weekly economic update

Current Economic Conditions

The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid^© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Friday, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data.

Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009.

May 16 update: For indicators updated this week, the changes in their percent-from-baseline positions over the past three months are shown below. (Scroll down to see Percent from Baseline table.)
Indicator	May 16 2025 % from Baseline	End of Feb. 2025 % from Baseline	+ or -
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index	- 4.7%	22.7%	- 27.4
OECD Composite Leading Indicators	14.7%	17.8%	- 3.1
Real retail sales per capita	9.2%	6.0%	+ 3.2
Total vehicle sales	17.0%	- 4.6%	+ 21.6
Capacity utilization	0.4%	0.6%	- 0.2
Industrial production	10.0%	9.0%	+ 1.0
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	- 66.7%	- 38.8%	- 27.9
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index	29.4%	34.9%	- 5.5
MoC	- 0.6%	1.8%	- 2.4
WMoC	7.2%	9.0%	- 1.8

*Weekly unemployment claims are inverted on the BaR. A positive % change indicates a decrease in claims.
(For better clarity, the BaR is now shown on a 60%/60% scale.)

Economic Indicators
Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends

Updated 5/16. To see previous tables go here. Next update 5/23.

Current Business Cycle
Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through January 2025; Updated 2/28/25
(See other business cycles)

The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man