econ p.i.

Just the facts...

Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid^©

The BaR Analysis Grid^© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates.

10/15 Update: Consumer sentiment, small business optimism, vehicle sales, job openings, and hires had negative rates of change. Unemployment claims had the largest level of increase, while real retail sales per capita and the STLFSI had modest increases.

Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019.

Data Updates: 10/11 to 10/15: Total vehicle sales, NFIB small business optimism, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm new hires, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, retail sales, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 10/4 to 10/8: ISM non-manufacturing, yield curve, temporary employment, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 9/27 to 10/1: Weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, NACM credit managers' index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (end of Sept.), and ISM manufacturing; 9/20 to 9/24: Existing home sales, private building permits, CFNAI, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 9/13 to 9/17: NFIB small business optimism, industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends

Updated 10/15. To see previous tables go here. Next update 10/22.

Current Business Cycle
Rolling 3-Month Average through Aug. 2021; Updated 9/30/21
(See other business cycles)

The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man