Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
| Copyright © 2017 - 2022 econpi.com All Rights Reserved |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| 3/17 update: Only two of the eight updated indicators updated this week had positive rates of change: NFIB small business optimism, which remained well below the baseline, and weekly unemployment claims, which remained well above the baseline. The weight of the six indicators with negative rates of change kept the MoC in the decline quadrant. |
|
| Economic Data Updates: 3/13 to 3/17: NFIB small business optimism, OECD business confidence, retail sales, week unemployment claims, STLFSI, industrial production, capacity utilization, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-monts); 3/6 to 3/10: Nonfarm job openings, nonfarm new hires, total vehicle sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and temporary employment; 2/27 to 3/3: 10 yr minus 2 year Treasury rate spread; NACM Credit Managers' Index, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 2/20 to 2/24: Existing home sales, CFNAI, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end). |
| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here.. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 3/10. To see previous tables go here. Next update 3/18. |
 |
| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through January 2023; Updated 2/28/23 (See other business cycles) |
 |
 |
| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
