Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019. |
| 4/9 Update: Indicators with positive rates of change included: ISM- nonmanufacturing, vehicle sales, job openings, hires, and the STLFSI. Weekly unemployment claims continued to increase, but that could be an indication that more people are returning to the labor force to look for work. |
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| Data Updates: 4/5 to 4/9: ISM-nonmanufacturing, vehicle sales, job openings, new hires, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI;.2/29 to 4/2: Nonfinancial corporate profits, NACM credit managers' index, ISM manufacturing, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, temporary employment, and yield curve; 3/22 to 3/26: Existing home sales, CFNAI, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 3/15 to 3/18: Retail sales, industrial capacity utilization, industrial production, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 4/9. To see previous tables go here. Next update 4/16. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average through February 2021; Updated 3/24/21 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
