Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Because the average of leading indicator coordinates (LD) is now lower than the MoC, the LD is being tracked. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday. |
| Copyright © 2017 - 2018 econpi.com All Rights Reserved |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
|
| Percent MoC from Baseline |
| Leading indicators are now at a lower percent than the MoC. Updated December 14. Next update December 28. |
 |
| Updates: 12/10 to 12/14: Job openings, hires, small business optimism, total vehicles sales, industrial capacity utilization, industrial production, real retail sales per capita; 12/3 to 12/7 - Consumer sentiment, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, unemployment claims, yield curve spread, ISM manufacturing, ISM nonmanufacturing, Credit Managers' Index, and temporary employment. Note: As of 11/30, improvements to the private building permits algorithms resulted in this measure moving from 38.7% above the baseline to 31.4%. This adjustment caused the MoC to move downward by 0.2%. |
 |
| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
