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| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates. |
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| 9/24 Recap: Existing home sales continued to improve. However, the seasonally adjusted numbers are probably slightly inflated. In addition, the largest increase in sales came from the northeast part of the country. The pace of home sales there will begin to moderate at some point. The STLFSI showed improvement, while weekly unemployment claims increased slightly. There is continuing evidence that federal data is overstating the number of unemployment claims. However, even if an adjustment were made, claims would remain below the baseline. Despite individual data issues, the MoC, as an aggregate of plotted points, provides a reliable indicator of economic conditions. The economy is recovering, but there is still weakness. This is indicated by the leading indicators (LD) lagging behind the MoC. |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Data Updates: 9/21 to 9/24: Existing home sales, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 9/14 to 9/18: Industrial utilization capacity, industrial production, retail sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month), and private building permits; 9/7 to 9/11: NFIB small business optimism, total vehicles sales, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm new hires, STLFSI, and weekly unemployment claims; 8/31 to 9/4:ISM manufacturing, ISM nonmanufacturing, temporary employment, Credit Managers' Index, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and yield curve spread. 8/24 to 8/28: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end), and adjusted nonfinancial corporate profits. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 9/22. Next update 10/2. To see previous tables go here. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average through July 2020; Updated 9/5/20 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
