Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. (Note: Starting July 3, job openings will be dropped as a leading indicator. Total vehicles sales and 12-month LIBOR will be added as leading indicators. Six of nine leading indicators will be updated by the first week of the month, providing visitors with an early insight of emerging trends. Twenty indicators will now be tracked on the BaR. Scroll down to bottom of page to see all of the plotted indicators.) |
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| Insight: In the June 26 update, the leading indicators remain above the MoC, indicating more economic indicators are improving . However, consumer sentiment dropped slightly from the mid-month survey. Consumers are cautious about the resurgence of the corona virus and its effect on the economy. |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Data updates: 6/22 to 6/26: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, existing home sales, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed National Activity Index, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (June final); 6/15 to 6/18: Retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and private building permits; 6/8 to 6/12: Nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, NFIB small business optimism, total vehicles sales, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, weekly unemployment claims, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (June preliminary); 6/1 to 6/5: ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing, unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, Credit Managers' Index, yield curve spread, nonfinancial corporate profits, and temporary employment. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 6/26. Next update 7/17. To see previous tables go here. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average 1st Quarter 2020; Updated 6/21/20 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
