Just the facts...
|Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid©|
|The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates.
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|Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019.
|(LD2 shows all leading indicators except weekly unemployment claims. LD2 will be discontinued when unemployment claims are more normalized.)|
|Data Updates: 5/3 to 5/7: NACM credit managers' index, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, temporary employment, and yield curve; 4/26 to 4/30: Weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 4/19 to 4/23: Private building permits, CFNAI, existing home sales, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 4/12 to 4/16: NFIB small business optimism, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-April); 4/5 to 4/9: ISM-nonmanufacturing, vehicle sales, job openings, new hires, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI.
|Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends|
|Updated 4/23. To see previous tables go here. Next update 5/7.
|Current Business Cycle
Rolling 3-Month Average through March 2021; Updated 4/22/21
(See other business cycles)
|The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man|