econ p.i.

Just the facts...

Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid^©

The BaR Analysis Grid^© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates.

Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019.

1/21 Update: Private building permits and existing home sales had positive rates of change. The STLFSI remains favorable and weekly unemployment claims, although remaining high, decreased from last week.

Data Updates: 1/18 to 1/22: Private building permits, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, and existing home sales; 1/11 to 1/15: NFIB small business optimism, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, retail sales, industrial capacity utilization, industrial production, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.1/4 to 1/8: NACM credit managers' index, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, temporary employment, and yield curve; 12/28 to 12/31: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end), weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 12/21 to 12/24: Existing home sales, CFNAI, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI.

Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends

Updated 11/19. To see previous tables go here. (Note: Decrease in % from baseline for existing home sales is due to adjustment in baseline and not a decrease in activity.)

Current Business Cycle
Rolling 3-Month Average through October 2020; Updated 11/30/20
(See other business cycles)

The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man