Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) provide insight into current trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Percent MoC from Baseline |
| Both the MoC and leading indicators remain well above the baseline (recession indicator). Updated December 27. Next update January 16. |
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| Current Business Cycle (See other business cycles) |
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| Updates: 1/7 - 1/11: Nonmanufacturing index, small business optimism, nonfarm job openings, and nonfarm hires; 12/31 to 1/4: ISM manufacturing, Credit Managers' Index, yield curve spread, umemployment claims, consumer sentiment, St. Louis Financial Stress Index (partial month due to shutdown), and temporary employment. |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
