Just the facts...
|Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid©|
|The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday.
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|Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession.
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|Data updates: 10/14 to 10/18: Retail sales, industrial capacity utilization, and industrial production; 10/7 to 10/11: Total vehicle sales, NFIB small business optimism, nonfarm job openings, and nonfarm hires; 9/30 to 10/4: Yield curve spread, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing, ISM nonmanufacturing, Credit Managers' Index, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, unemployment claims, and temporary employment
|Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends|
|The MoC declined slightly in the mid-October update, but remains well above the baseline. Updated 10/17. Next update 11/1. To see previous tables go here.
|Current Business Cycle
Preliminary 3Q 2019 Update 10/17/19
(See other business cycles)
|The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man|