Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday. |
| Insight: A strong case can be made that a 2020 recession is unlikely. Read more here. Insight: If manufacturing improves as the ISM forecasts, the MoC is likely to shift into the expansion quad, finally going where the leading indicators (LDs) have been over the past few months. This will probably happen even though the LDs are moving off a recent peak and their growth rate is slowing. As a result, the LDs should continue a leftward shift. If so, watch how long the LDs stay in the decline quad. The longer the LDs stay in the decline quad, the more likely the MoC will move that way too, signalling the continuation of modest growth. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Data updates: 1/20 to 1/24: Private building permits, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and existing home sales; 1/13 to 1/17: NFIB small business optimism, vehicles sales, retail sales, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, industrial production, and capacity utilization; 1/6 to 1/10: ISM nonmanufacturing and temporary employment; 12/30 to 1/3: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, yield curve spread, ISM manufacturing, Credit Managers' Index, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and unemployment claims. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| The MoC continues its gradual decline, but remains well above the baseline. Updated 1/22. Next update 2/14. To see previous tables go here. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average Through Dec. '19; Updated 1/23/19 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
