Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates. |
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| 7/23 Update: The drop in vehicle sales is consistent with the recent decrease in consumer sentiment. Weekly unemployment claims increased above the level seen at the end of last month These factors have pushed the MoC slightly into the decline quadrant. The last update for the month is the CFNAI, which is likely to shift leftward. This will move the MoC distinctly into the decline quadrant. The economy is growing, but at a slowing rate. |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019. |
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| Data Updates: 7/19 to 7/22: Existing home sales, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and the STLFSI; 7/12 to 7/16: NFIB small business optimism, industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-July); 7/5 to 7/9: ISM services, vehicle sales, job openings, new hires, weekly unemployment claims, and the STLFSI; 6/28 to 7/2: NACM credit managers' index, ISM manufacturing, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, temporary employment, and yield curve. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 7/23. To see previous tables go here. Next update 7/30. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average through June2021; Updated 7/26/21 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
