Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a unique subset that apply strictly to the BaR, providing insight into emerging trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is update every Friday. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Baseline Adjustment: As each indicator reaches a peak value, baselines are adjusted to reflect the actual peak. Industrial production, temporary employment, and unemployment claims required larger than normal adjustments. This lowered the MoC by 2% effective 9/6/19. August Data Updates: 9/16 to 9/20: Industrial production, capacity utilization, and existing home sales: 9/9 to 9/13: NFIB small business optimism, nonfarm hires, nonfarm job openings, total vehicle sales, and retail sales; 9/2 to 9/6: Yield curve spread, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing, ISM nonmanufacturing, Credit Managers' Index, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, unemployment claims, and temporary employment |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| BEA adjustments to corporate profits and baseline adjustments to three indicators have lowered the MoC. However, it remains above recessionary levels. Updated 9/17. Next update 9/27. To see previous tables go here. |
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| Current Business Cycle Updated 7/29/19 (See other business cycles) |
| Q: For 1Q 2019, why is the BaR showing a decrease in the rate of growth while GDP increased 3.1%? A: The BaR rate of change is influenced by sentiment measures and economic indexes. The BaR captured increased pessimism and lowered expectations among small business owners, consumers, credit managers, and purchasers. This is evident in the slowdown in consumer spending during the quarter. Even so, the MoC is well above the baseline, signalling that the economy remains relatively strong. |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
