Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) provide insight into current trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Updates: 3/22: 3-mo/10-yr Treasury yield curve inverted. Continuous inversion periods of at least one month have led the last three recessions by 13, 8, and 17 months respectively. Brief inversions commonly occur well before extended inversions. 3/18 to 3/22: Existing home sales; 3/11 to 3/15: Retail sales, NFIB small business optimism, industrial capacity utilization, industrial production, nonfarm job openings, and nonfarm hires; 3/4 to 3/8: ISM nonmanufacturing, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, unemployment claims, temporary employment, and total vehicle sales; 3/1: ISM manufacturing, consumer sentiment, Credit Managers' Index, and yield curve spread |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Although the economy has slowed, both the MoC and leading indicators remain well above the baseline (recession indicator). Updated 3/15. Next update 3/29. |
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| Current Business Cycle Updated 2/2/19 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
