Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| 9/15 update: Of the eight indicators updated this week, only two - small business optimism and consumer confidence - had positive rates of change compared to last month. However, these two indicators are reliable leading indicators and they remain below the baseline. Of the indicators that had positive rates of change, the most significant was real retail sales per capita. It has increased over each of the last five months. Consumers may be pessimistic, but they are continuing to spend for retail and food services. (For better clarity, the BaR is now shown on a 60%/60% scale.) |
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| Economic Data Updates: 9/11 to 9/15: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, OECD Business Confidence Index, real retail sales per capita, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, capacity utilization, industrial production, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month); 9/4 to 9/8: Real nonfinancial corporate production profits, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, weekly unemployment claims, and St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index; 8/28 to 9/1: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, weekly unemployment claims, NACM Credit Managers'' Index, and temporary employment; 8/21 to 8/25: Private building permits, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, existing home sales, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (end of month). |
| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here.. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 9/15. To see previous tables go here. Next update 9/22. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through May 2023; Updated 6/30/23 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
