Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| Recession watch: Three months prior to the last three business cycle recessions (excluding the 2020 shutdown), weighting the most recent recessions more heavily, the MoC was on average 8.3% above the baseline. One month prior to the three recession starts, the MoC weighted average was 2.1% above the baseline. |
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| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here. |
| Economic Data Updates: 5/9 to 5/13: OECD business confidence, NFIB small business optimism, total vehicle sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month); 5/2 to 5/6: NACM credit managers index, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, yield curve spread, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and temporary unemployment; 4/26 to 4/29: CFNAI, STLFI, weekly unemployment claims, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month ending); 4/18 to 4/22: Private building permits, existing home sales, STLFSI, and weekly unemployment claims; 4/11 to 4/15: OECD Business Confidence Index, NFIB small business optimism, retail sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month), total vehicle sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, industrial capacity utilization, and industrial production. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 5/13. To see previous tables go here. Next update 5/20. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through March 2022; Updated 4/25/22 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
