Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates. |
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| Insight: The July 31 update showed mixed trends. Financial stress improved, while consumer sentiment decreased slightly and weekly unemployment claims increased slightly. The question is whether financial markets are more discerning than consumers. Seven indicators will be updated next week, providing more insights into the impact of the uptick in COVID 19 cases. |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Data Updates: 7/27 to 7/31: Weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month ending); 7/20 to 7/24: Existing home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 7/13 to 7/17: NFIB small business optimism, industrial capacity utilization, industrial production, retail sales, private building permits, and consumer sentiment (July preliminary); 7/6 to 7/10: ISM nonmanufacturing, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, total vehicles sales, weekly unemployment, and STLFSI; 6/29 to 7/3: ISM manufacturing, temporary employment, Credit Managers' Index, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and yield curve spread. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 7/31. Next update 8/14. To see previous tables go here. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average 2nd Quarter 2020; Updated 7/31/20 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
