Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
| Copyright © 2017 - 2022 econpi.com All Rights Reserved |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| 1/21 Update: Weekly unemployment claims continued to climb, resulting in a significant negative rate of change. Existing home sales saw a negative rate of change, while private building permits had a positive rate of change. Both remain well above the baseline. With only a few indicators being updated this week, the MoC moved slightly and remains in the decline quadrant. The LD remains below the MoC, signaling a vulnerable economy. |
|
|
Why was the weekly unemployment claims baseline reset? At the start of the COVID economic recession, weekly unemployment claims were at a historic low. Because baselines are determined by where an indicator is when a recession starts, this skewed the baseline downward. The baseline has been adjusted to restore it to a level justified by historical norms. The purpose of the BaR is to accurately signal when a recession is imminent. This adjustment will help achieve that goal. |
| Economic Data Updates: 1/17 to 1/21: Exiting home sales, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and SFLFSI; 1/10 to 1/14: NFIB small business optimism, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid month), nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires; 1/3 to 1/7: NACM credit managers index, ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing, yield curve, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, and temporary employment;12/20 to 12/24: Existing home sales, CFNAI, nonfinancial corporate profits, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (end of month). |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 1/21. To see previous tables go here. Next update 1/28. |
 |
| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average through Nov. 2021; Updated 12/31/21 (See other business cycles) |
 |
 |
| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
