Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| Recession watch: Three months prior to the last three business cycle recessions (excluding the 2020 shutdown), weighting the most recent recessions most heavily, the MoC was on average 8.3% above the baseline. One month prior to the three recession starts, the MoC weighted average was 2.1% above the baseline. Despite negative second quarter GDP growth, indicators suggest that although the economy has slowed it is not at a level normally associated with a recession. However, trends suggest that more economic measures will move towards the baseline, eventually leading to a typical business cycle recession. |
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| Economic Data Updates: 9/26 to 9/30: CFNAI, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end): 9/19 to 9/23: Existing home sales, private building permits, STLFSI, and weekly unemployment claims; 9/12 to 9/16: NFIB small business optimism, retail sales, OECD business confidence, industrial production, capacity utilization, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 9/5 to 9/9: Total vehicle sales, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 8/29 to 9/2: Credit Managers' Index, yield curve spread, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, nonfinancial corporate profits, and temporary employment. |
| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here.. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 9/30. To see previous tables go here. Next update 10/7. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through August 2022; Updated 9/26/22 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
