Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday. |
| Copyright © 2017 - 2019 econpi.com All Rights Reserved |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
|
| Data updates: 11/11 to 11/15: NFIB small business optimism, retail sales, industrial capacity utilization, and industrial production; 11/4 to 11/8: Nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, ISM nonmanufacturing, unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and total vehicle sales; 10/28 to 11/1: Yield curve spread, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing, Credit Managers' Index, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and temporary employment |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| The MoC continues gradual decline, but remains well above the baseline. Updated 11/15. Next update 11/29. To see previous tables go here. |
 |
| Current Business Cycle 3Q 2019 Updated 10/28/19 (See other business cycles) |
 |
 |
| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
