Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates. |
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| 11/25 Update: Weekly unemployment claims increased for the second week and are now above the level seen at the end of October. Month ending consumer sentiment saw little change from mid-month and remains below the October index. These two recent indicators confirm the economy is being impacted by the uptick in COVID cases. Although dated, 3Q nonfinancial corporate production profits rebounded sharply, ending higher than pre-recession levels. Even if the economy slows in the fourth quarter, corporations are in a strong position to weather a slowdown. |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019. |
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| Note: Baseline for existing home sales was adjusted on 10/23 grid to better reflect likely recession threshold. Data Updates: 11/16 to 11/20: Industrial production, industrial capacity utilization, retail sales, private building permits, existing home sales, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 11/9 to 11/13: NCIB small business optimism, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, total vehicle sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month); 11/2 to 11/6: ISM manufacturing, ISM services, NACM credit manager's index, temporary employment, yield curve spread, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI. 10/26 to 10/30: CNFAI, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end); 10/19 to 10/23: Existing home sales, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 11/19. Next update 11/25. To see previous tables go here. (Note: Decrease in % from baseline for existing home sales is due to adjustment in baseline and not a decrease in activity.) |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average through September 2020; Updated 10/26/20 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
