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Quick, unbiased view of the economy...

"Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."        — Sherlock Holmes, A Scandal in Bohemia

Just the facts...

Overall Economic Outlook
May = 69; April = 70; March = 68
(>80 = robust; <30 = weak)
 (How the economic outlook is calculated.)
Contents:
Business Cycle Indicators
Consumer Sentiment Unemployment Claims Building Permits
Job Openings Temporary Employment Real Retail Sales
Nonmanufacturing Cass Freight IndexTM Financial Stress
Yield Curve Small Business Optimism  Corporate Profits
Private Investment Vehicle Sales Existing Home Sales
6
Economic Measures
Real GDP Real GDP Per Capita Consumer Price Index DOL Employment
6
Other Economic Indicators
Personal Income National Activity Index Credit Managers' Index
Hourly Earnings Real Durable Goods
 Producivity
5
Business Cycle Indicators: 
Econ P.I. selects business cycle indicators based on their track record of signalling economic conditions. Follow these 15 indicators and you will understand the current state of the economy, including clear warnings of a recession.

Red headings mark the most recent updates.
 
 Consumer Sentiment - May End-of-Month (released 5/26)
Consumer Sentiment Table 5 17 End
Current University of Michigan release...Consumer Sentiment Home 5 17

Importance: The Index of Consumer Sentiment, published by the University of Michigan, measures the optimism that consumers feel about the economy and their own personal well-being.
Top of page
Unemployment Claims, Monthly Average - May
Unemployment Table 5 17
Current Department of Labor release...Unemployment Home 4 17

Importance: Historically, unemployment claims have steadily increased a year or more prior to recessions.
 Top of page
Building Permits - April (released 5/24)
Building Permits Table 4 17
Current Department of Commerce release...Building Permits Home 4 17

Importance: Building permits are considered to be a leading indicator. According to the National Association of Realtors, housing and housing related services account for approximately 15% of GDP. 
 Top of page
JOLTS - End of April (released 6/6)
Job Openings Table 4 17
Current Department of Labor release...Job Openings Home 4 17
Importance: Job openings trend closely with overall economic growth. JOLTS data is taken from "a sample of nonfarm establishments" and is subject to significant monthly revisions. Due to its volatility, following a three-month moving average is recommended. Measuring job openings per 100 persons in the workforce provides better comparative data from year to year.
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Temporary Employment - May (released 6/2)
Temp Workers Table 5 17
Current Fed data release...Temp Workers Home 5 17

Importance: Historical data shows that temporary workers are generally the first hired and fired by firms as economic conditions change, making temporary employment a useful leading indicator.
 Top of page
Real Retail Sales Per Capita - May (released 6/14)
Retail Sales Table 5 17 r2
Current Department of Commerce release...Retail Sales Home 5 17 r2

Importance: Retail sales are viewed as a coincident indicator, meaning that it reflects the current state of the economy. 
 Top of page
ISM Nonmanufacturing (NMI®) - May (released 6/5)
ISM Non Table 5 17
Current ISM release...ISM Non Home 5 17

Importance: The nonmanufacturing sector accounts for approximately 80% of economic output. Readings above 50 indicate this sector is expanding. Readings below 48.9 have coincided with negative growth in the overall U.S. economy.
 Top of page
Cass Freight Index TM - 2017 Estimate
Cass Table 3 17
Current Cass release...Cass Home 3 17

Importance: The annualized CFITM shows a clear pattern of decline prior to recessions. The index is annualized because of its highly seasonal nature, making it easier to spot trends from year to year. 1990 has a base year value of 1.0. (Due to seasonal variations, 2017 is estimated until 5 months of data are available.)
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 St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, May Monthly Average
STLSFI Table 5 17
Current Fed data release...STLSFI Home 4 17

Importance: The St. Louis Fed states that the "STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets..." A zero value indicates normal market conditions,while a value above zero indicates above-average financial market stress. Values at or near "1" have normally occurred prior to recessions.
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 Yield Curve Spread, May Monthly Average
Yield Curve Table 5 17
Current Fed data release...Yield Curve Home 5 17

Importance: Research has shown that a steeper curve (higher number) indicates stronger economic growth. Historically, the yield curve spread turns negative prior to recessions and credit crunches, with a lag of approximately one year. The spread shown here is the difference between 10-year Treasury notes and 3-month Treasury bills.
 Top of page
Small Business Optimism - April (updated 5/17)
Small Business Optimism Table 4 17
Current NFIB release...Small Business Optimism Home 4 17

Importance: The sentiment of small business owners has generally signaled overall economic conditions. The optimism reading is taken from a monthly survey of small business owners. 
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Real Corporate Profits, 4Q 2016, 2nd Estimate (update 3/31)
Corporate Profits Table 4Q 16
Current Department of Commerce release...Corporate Profits Home 4Q 16

Importance: Corporate profits are a main driver of economic activity. Adjustments for IVA and CCAdj provide a consistent measure of profits from year to year, as they smooth the effects of changes to depreciation and valuation.
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 Real Net Domestic Private Investment, 1Q 2017 (updated 4/28)
Net Private Investment Table 1Q
Current Fed data release...Net Private Investment Home 1Q

Importance:  Increases or decreases in net private investment indicate changes in the future productive capacity of the U.S.
 Top of page
Vehicle Sales - April (updated 5/28)
Vehicle Sales Table 4 17
Current Fed data release...Vehicle Sales Home 4 17

Importance: Vehicle sales provide another measure of consumer confidence. Due to the volatility of vehicle sales, the three-month exponential moving average is a better measure for tracking this indicator.
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 Existing Home Sales - April (released 5/24)
Existing Home Sales Table 4 17
Current NAR release... Existing Home Sales Home 4 17

Importance: Existing home sales are a complementary measure to new building permits, which is a gauge of new construction. This measure has wide data variations from month to month, making the three-month EMA a better measure to follow.
Big Three Economic Measures: 
GDP, inflation, and employment are used to gauge overall economic conditions.
 Top of page
Real GDP, 1Q 2017, 2nd estimate (released 5/26)
GDP Table 1Q e2 r2
GDP Home 1Q e2
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Real GDP per capita, 4Q 2016, based on 2nd estimate (released 5/26)
GDP Per Capita Table 1Q e2 
Current Department of Commerce release...GDP Per Capita Home 1Q e2
 Top of page
Consumer Price Index - May (released 6/14)
CPI Table 5 17 r2
Current Department of Labor release...CPI Home 5 17 r2
 Top of page
Department of Labor employment - May (released 6/2)
Employment Table 5 17
Current Department of Labor release...Employment Home 5 17 
 
Other Key Economic Indicators:
 Top of page
Real disposable personal income per capita - March (released 5/1)
DPI Table 3 17 2 
Current Department of Commerce release...DPI Home 3 17 2

Importance: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis defines disposable personal income as "personal income less personal current taxes. It is income available … for spending or saving." Disposable income that is spent is referred to as personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Disposable income that is not spent is savings. Changes in PCE signal the confidence that consumers have in the economy, both now and in the near future.
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Industrial production and capacity utilization - May (released 6/15)
IP and CU Table 5 17
Current Fed data release...IP and CU Home 5 17

Importance: Industrial production and capacity are considered to be coincident indicators because they reflect current economic conditions. Capacity utilization below 80% indicates there is slack in the economy. Manufacturing, mining, and utilities account for approximately 16 percent of GDP. 
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index - April (released 5/22)
CFNAI Table 4 17
Current Fed data release...CFNAI Home 4 17

Importance: The CFNAI gauges "overall economic activity and related inflationary pressures." Positive values indicate above-average growth and negative values indicate below-average growth. A three-month moving average of -0.70 generally indicates a recession has started.
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Credit Managers' Index - May (updated 5/31)
CMI Table 5 17
Current NACM release...CMI Home 5 17 r2

Importance: The National Association of Credit Managers describes the CMI as an "accurate, predictive bench-marking tool." Readings above 50 indicate credit is expanding.
 Top of page
Real average hourly earnings - May (released 6/14)
Earnings Table 5 17
Current Department of Labor release...Earnings Home 5 17

Importance: Gains in real hourly earnings indicate that wage increases exceed inflation. Higher real wages encourage consumer spending, spurring economic growth.
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 ISM manufacturing (PMI®) - May (released 6/1)
ISM M Table 5 17
Current ISM release...ISM M Home 5 17

Importance: Manufacturing continues to be a significant contributor to economic growth. Readings above 50 indicate this sector is expanding. Readings below 43.2 coincide with overall economic slowdowns. 
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Real durable goods new orders - April Full Report (released 6/7)
Durable Goods Table 4 17 Full
Current Department of Commerce release...Durable Goods Home 4 17

Importance: Durable goods new orders serve as a leading indicator of economic activity.
 Top of page
Productivity, 1Q, 2017: Revised (released 6/5)
Productivity Table 1Q 17 r2
Current Department of Commerce release...Productivity Home 1Q 17

Importance: When productivity increases, the same amount of resources can produce more goods or services. Higher productivity leads to a higher standard of living. 
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Other Measures:
Fed Outlays % GDP
Federal Outlays Percent of GDP
Interest on Debt % GDP
Interest Percent of GDP
Jobs
 Nonfarm Employment
Participation Rate
Labor Participation Rate

 
The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man
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