econ p.i.

Just the facts...

Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid^©

The BaR Analysis Grid^© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) provide insight into current trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday.

Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession.

Updates: 4/15 to 4/19: Industrial capacity, industrial production, and advanced retail sales; 4/8 to 4/12: Nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, NFIB small business optimism, and total vehicle sales; 4/1 to 4/5: St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, unemployment claims, yield curve spread, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, retail sales, ISM manufacturing, ISM nonmanufacturing, Credit Managers' Index, and temporary employment

3/22: 3-mo/10-yr Treasury yield curve inverted.
Facts to know: Continuous inversion periods of at least one month have led the last three recessions by 13, 8, and 17 months respectively. Since the late 1970s, one or more brief inversions have occurred prior to longer, continuous inversions. The earliest, brief inversions occurred, respectively, 16, 30, and 22 months prior to the last three recessions. In addition, normally the 2-yr/10-yr curve inverts prior to the 3-mo/10-yr. That did not happen with this inversion.

Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends

Although the economy has slowed, both the MoC and leading indicators remain well above the baseline (recession indicator). Updated 4/18. Next update 5/3. To see previous tables go here.

Current Business Cycle
Updated 3/22/19
(See other business cycles)

The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man