Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) provide insight into current trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated every Friday. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Updates: 2/11 to 2/15: Total vehicles, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, small business optimism, industrial production, industrial capacity utilization, and retail sales; 2/4 to 2/8: ISM non-manufacturing, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, unemployment claims, and corporate profits (estimate); 1/28 to 2/1: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing, temporary employment, Credit Managers' Index, and yield curve spread |
| Percent MoC from Baseline |
| Both the MoC and leading indicators remain well above the baseline (recession indicator). Updated 2/15. Next update 3/1. |
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| Current Business Cycle Updated 2/2/19 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
