Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates. |
| Copyright © 2017 - 2021 econpi.com All Rights Reserved |
| 11/26 Update: Nonfinancial corporate profits, weekly unemployment claims, and the CFNAI saw strong improvements. Existing home sales had a more modest positive rate of change. The STLFSI signaled a small increase in financial stress. Critically, consumer sentiment at the end of November remains depressed, with inflation as the main cause of discontent. |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
|
| Economic Data Updates: 11/22 to 11/27: Existing home sales, CFNAI, nonfinancial corporate profits, weeking unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 11/15 to 11/19: Retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and the STLFSI; 11/8 to 11/12: Total vehicle sales, NFIB small business optimism, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm new hires, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 11/1 to 11/5: NACM credit managers index, ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing, yield curve, STLFSI, week unemployment claims, and temporary employment; 10/25 to 10/29: CFNAI, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end). |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 11/26. To see previous tables go here. Next update 12/3. |
 |
| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average through Sep. 2021; Updated 10/29/21 (See other business cycles) |
 |
 |
| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
