Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. Updated 4/1. |
|
Insight: The BaR is developing a recessionary pattern. However, the $2 trillion rescue package and continuing actions by the Fed will provide short-term help to the economy. The most important factor will be how soon the recently unemployed can get back to work. That will drive the depth and length of the slowdown. |
| Copyright © 2017 - 2020 econpi.com All Rights Reserved |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
|
| Data updates: 3/30 to 4/1: Credit Managers' Index, yield curve spread, and ISM manufacturing; 3/27: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (March ending) |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Leading indicators are now -2.6 below the baseline, and the MoC is 11.8% above the baseline. Updated 3/27. Next update 2/2. To see previous tables go here. |
 |
| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average Through Feb '20; Updated 3/31/20 (See other business cycles) |
 |
 |
| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
