Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) is the average of all plotted points. It indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends (business cycles are comprised of multiple mini-cycles). Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. (Note: Several improvements are planned for the BaR. These changes will be made after the economy begins recovery.) |
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| Insight: The leading indicators continue to improve, confirming that a recovery, quick or slow, is on its way. |
| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since the last recession. |
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| Data updates: 6/1 to 6/5: ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing, unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, Credit Managers' Index, yield curve spread, nonfinancial corporate profits, and temporary employment; 5/26 to 5/29: Chicago Fed National Activity Index and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (May final). |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 5/29. Next update 6/16. To see previous tables go here. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average Through Mar '20; Updated 5/8/20 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
