Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| 11/25 update: All four indicators updated this week had negative rates of change. The MoC is now 8.6% above the baseline. As shown in the Percent from Baseline table below, this is a range normally seen three months prior to a recession. However, each economic cycle has unique characteristics. Whether or not the economy will fall into a recession that soon remains to be seen, but it is at a point where growth is likely to continue to slow and eventually reach recessionary conditions. The BaR now plots the STLFSI4, which is expected to better capture financial stress. To read more, go to the FRED Blog for November 10. This changed moved the STLFSI closer to the baseline. Recession watch: Three months prior to the last three business cycle recessions (excluding the 2020 shutdown), weighting the most recent recessions most heavily, the MoC was on average 8.3% above the baseline. One month prior to the three recession starts, the MoC weighted average was 2.1% above the baseline. |
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| Economic Data Updates: 11/21 to 11/25: CFNAI, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end); 11/14 to 11/18: Retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and existing home sales; 11/7 to 11/11: NFIB small business optimism, OECD business confidence, total vehicle sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month); 10/31 to 11/4: Yield curve, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, Credit Managers' Index, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and temporary employment. |
| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here.. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 11/25. To see previous tables go here. Next update 12/2. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through August 2022; Updated 9/26/22 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
