Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| 5/26 update: Real nonfinancial corporate profits, after tax with IVA and CCAdj, tumbled in the first quarter (yes, it took this long for first quarter profits to be reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis). This is the second quarter of decline for real corporate profits. Typically, real corporate profits decline 30% prior to a recession start. Profits are down 10% from its high in the third quarter of 2022. Consumer sentiment has also declined and it is at levels last seen during the 2007-2009 recession. In contrast, the STLFSI shows less than average financial stress in the economy, and although weekly unemployment claims have increased steadily since September 2022, they remain 34% above the baseline. The MoC was largely unchanged from the end of last month and indicates the economy remains vulnerable to a recession. (For better clarity, the BaR is now shown on a 60%/60% scale.) |
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| Economic Data Updates: 5/22 to 5/26: Real nonfinancial corporate profits, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, weekly unemployment claims, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 5/15 to 5/19: Real retail sales per capita, capacity utilization, industrial production, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, weekly unemployment claims, private building permits, and existing home sales; 5/8 to 5/12: NACM small business optimism, OECD business confidence, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, total vehicle sales, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month); 5/1 to 5/5: Nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, NACM Credit Managers' Index, 10-yr minus 2-yr yield curve, weekly unemployment claims, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, and temporary employment. |
| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here.. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 5/26. To see previous tables go here. Next update 6/2. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through March 2023; Updated 4/27/23 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
