econ p.i.

Just the facts...

Current Economic Conditions

The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid^© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Friday, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data.

Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009.

12/1 update: For indicators updated this week, the changes in their baseline positions over the past three months are shown below. (See Percent from Baseline table below.)

Indicator	December 1, 2023 % from Baseline	September 2023 % from Baseline	+ or -
NACM Credit Managers' Index	2.1%	-5.9%	+8.0
10-Year Treasury minus 2-Year Treasury	-22.0%	-5.0%	-17.0
Real nonfin. profits, after tax, with IVA/CCAdj	35.7%	35.9%	-0.2
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index	33.4%.	34.6%	-1.2
Weekly unemployment claims	37.8%	42.3%	-4.5
MoC	-1.3%	1.3%	-2.6

*Weekly unemployment claims are inverted on the BaR. A positive % change indicates a decrease in claims.
(For better clarity, the BaR is now shown on a 60%/60% scale.)

Economic Indicators
Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends

Updated 12/1. To see previous tables go here. Next update 12/8.

Current Business Cycle
Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through October 2023; Updated 11/23/23
(See other business cycles)

The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man