Just the facts...
| Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© |
| The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019. |
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| Data Updates: 10/19 to 10/23: Existing home sales, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 10/12 to 10/16: NFIB small business optimism, total vehicle sales, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, industrial capacity utilization, industrial production, and retail sales; 10/5 to 10/9: ISM nonmanufacturing, nonfarm job openings, nonfarm hires, yield curve spread, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 9/28 to 10/2: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, NACM credit managers' index, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, temporary employment, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end); 9/21 to 9/24: Existing home sales, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 9/14 to 9/18: Industrial utilization capacity, industrial production, retail sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-month), and private building permits. |
| Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 10/16. Next update 10/30. To see previous tables go here. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average through September 2020; Updated 10/26/20 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
